With Alabama, Texas and Tennessee awaiting on consecutive Saturdays in November, LSU has little room for error as it pursues a College Football Playoff berth. The Tigers have made significant strides in recent weeks, but there are still areas where improvement could make a big difference.
During LSU’s open week, we examined six such areas in a three-part series. For those who missed an installment, here’s the complete series in one place.
Guard play still inconsistent
It’s not like this Tiger team still has to figure out how to stop mobile quarterbacks or develop a rushing attack. It’s done a great job of checking those two boxes so far. Now, it’s more specific things, such as inconsistent guard play, that the Tigers need to clean up to reach their full potential.
This one, in particular, has been a major talking point all season long. In fact, Lane Kiffin pointed to inconsistent guard play after LSU destroyed Clemson in the season opener, giving credit to Sam Leavitt and Dilin Jones for making guys miss and adding to LSU’s offensive production. We’ve also seen the coaching staff make a change by inserting William Satterwhite into the mix.
So how has LSU been at guard this season? It’s been a mixed bag. We’ve seen a lot of good and some bad over the first eight games. Among SEC offensive linemen who have played at least 50% of their team’s snaps this season, Satterwhite ranks near the bottom in PFF’s blocking grades with a 53.5, placing him 70th. LSU’s other starting guard, Aliou Bah, ranks 38th with a 69.3 grade. PFF isn’t the Holy Bible, of course, but it gives us a way to compare these guys to their peers.
Still, despite some inconsistency, this offensive line has been improving, and played a big part in LSU putting up more than 500 yards on the road against an Auburn team that had beaten Georgia a week earlier.
Also, quarterback play has something to do with this next observation, but we haven’t seen nearly as many tipped passes lately, and the offensive line has surrendered just three sacks over the last two games. That’s good stuff. Now, if guard play can become more consistent, it’s only going to make this offense that much more difficult to slow down.
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Linebacker play has been good, but could be better soon
A lot of fans criticized Davhon Keys for some lapses against Kentucky, particularly on that final scoring drive and in overtime, but what I love about this team is its ability to respond. Keys is a great example of that, recording a combined 17 tackles and 1.5 sacks over the last two weeks.
It hasn’t been perfect over the first eight games, but if you want to look at the reality of it, the Tigers are a slow start in Oxford and one late defensive series in Lexington away from being undefeated. With that being the case, LSU is still in control of its playoff destiny heading into the bye week, which means a lot of good must have happened after Whit Weeks fractured his right fibula against Texas A&M at the end of September.
A big reason for that is the steady hand of TJ Dottery, who ranks second among SEC linebackers with an 85.8 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. Do you realize LSU had two of the five highest-graded linebackers in the SEC when Weeks and Dottery were on the field together? It’s hard not to miss that combination, especially when you give up 35 points to Kentucky on the road.
I’d argue LSU is getting every ounce of production it thought it would get from the Ole Miss transfer, and then some. Dottery has also had to take on more leadership responsibility — and the green dot — with Weeks no longer on the field, and he’s handled it extremely well.
And while Keys had a rough go in Lexington, PFF still has him with a 64.1 overall grade, which is above average. He’s been outstanding against the run, weaving his way through traffic and securing tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’s been picked on some in coverage, and we mentioned him being out of position on Byrum Brown’s long run last weekend. But at the end of the day, Brown finished with just 21 rushing yards after producing back-to-back 100-yard performances. Keys did his part in helping limit Auburn’s talented quarterback.
And you know the even better news? Help may be on the way with Weeks working toward a return from injury. The linebacker corps hasn’t been bad by any means, especially considering how much its depth has been tested. But as LSU gets healthier here, improved linebacker play could take an already elite defense to another level.
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Special teams play
A lot of fans criticized Davhon Keys for some lapses against Kentucky, particularly on that final scoring drive and in overtime, but what I love about this team is its ability to respond. Keys is a great example of that, recording a combined 17 tackles and 1.5 sacks over the last two weeks.
It hasn’t been perfect over the first eight games, but if you want to look at the reality of it, the Tigers are a slow start in Oxford and one late defensive series in Lexington away from being undefeated. With that being the case, LSU is still in control of its playoff destiny heading into the bye week, which means a lot of good must have happened after Whit Weeks fractured his right fibula against Texas A&M at the end of September.
A big reason for that is the steady hand of TJ Dottery, who ranks second among SEC linebackers with an 85.8 overall grade from Pro Football Focus. Do you realize LSU had two of the five highest-graded linebackers in the SEC when Weeks and Dottery were on the field together? It’s hard not to miss that combination, especially when you give up 35 points to Kentucky on the road.
I’d argue LSU is getting every ounce of production it thought it would get from the Ole Miss transfer, and then some. Dottery has also had to take on more leadership responsibility — and the green dot — with Weeks no longer on the field, and he’s handled it extremely well.
And while Keys had a rough go in Lexington, PFF still has him with a 64.1 overall grade, which is above average. He’s been outstanding against the run, weaving his way through traffic and securing tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. He’s been picked on some in coverage, and we mentioned him being out of position on Byrum Brown’s long run last weekend. But at the end of the day, Brown finished with just 21 rushing yards after producing back-to-back 100-yard performances. Keys did his part in helping limit Auburn’s talented quarterback.
And you know the even better news? Help may be on the way with Weeks working toward a return from injury. The linebacker corps hasn’t been bad by any means, especially considering how much its depth has been tested. But as LSU gets healthier here, improved linebacker play could take an already elite defense to another level.
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Continue upward trajectory in the red zone
We like where this is heading. LSU made five trips to the red zone against Auburn and scored on every single one of them, including four touchdowns. And if you compare LSU’s touchdown rate in the red zone to the rest of the conference, the Tigers rank fifth in the SEC at 71.1%. Again, trending in the right direction here.
Perhaps the most amazing red-zone stat is the number of trips LSU has made. The Tigers have reached the red zone 45 times this season, more than any other team in the country. LSU currently ranks 41st nationally in red-zone scoring percentage and 28th in touchdown percentage.
Tiger fans will take those numbers in a heartbeat after how things started. Through the first month of the season, LSU ranked 105th nationally in red-zone scoring percentage (79.2%) and tied for 78th in touchdown percentage (62.5%).
Trey’Dez Green’s return will certainly help the Tigers in this area going forward. And I’d argue his presence played a direct role in LSU’s 5-for-5 showing at Auburn last weekend.
Moving the ball has not been an issue for this LSU offense. The Tigers rank sixth nationally in total offense, but finishing drives has hampered them at times, especially in that September loss at Ole Miss.
It’s clear LSU is improving in the red zone, and that needs to continue. Adding a big target like the 6-foot-7 Green back into the mix, and taking advantage of the mismatches he creates, should certainly help.
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Vertical passing game
The red-zone woes appear to be getting resolved, so where else can LSU improve? I’d argue that one area is the vertical passing game.
We’ve seen Sam Leavitt’s ability to buy time and execute at an extremely high level on short and intermediate throws. Heck, Leavitt has the best passing grade in the SEC at the moment, with a 91.0 overall grade from PFF.
What’s hampered LSU’s passing game has been the turnovers, though Leavitt is now coming off back-to-back games without one, and a lack of explosive plays outside the numbers. In other words, we haven’t seen a ton of big plays with LSU running fly patterns, double moves and the like.
Still, this is a potent passing attack. Leavitt ranks seventh nationally in passing yards (2,173), tied for 13th in touchdown passes (17) and fifth in ESPN’s QBR (85.9). On the flip side, he’s also thrown eight interceptions.
A deeper look at LSU’s passing numbers shows the Tigers tied for 29th nationally in pass plays of 30 yards or more, which isn’t bad by any means. But a lot of those big plays have come on deep crossing routes over the middle of the field rather than shots down the sidelines where Leavitt trusts his receivers to make plays in tight coverage.
Don’t be surprised if we start seeing more of that in the coming weeks. Why? Two words. Jackson Harris.
He’s becoming the go-to guy, and you’re starting to see Leavitt challenge cornerbacks down the field on some of those tight-coverage throws to Harris. That paid off with several big plays against Auburn.
LSU will need more of that to continue opening up its rushing attack. It’s clear Leavitt can serve as an extremely efficient point guard, nickel-and-diming his way down the field with checkdown passes before hitting a big play on a crossing route. But adding more deep throws outside the numbers can only make this offense more dangerous going forward.
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Win the turnover battle
Another area for improvement, and one that Lane Kiffin would probably put at the top of this list, is turnover margin. Kiffin said as much during last Sunday’s Zoom call with reporters, pointing out that LSU ranks among the nation’s best teams in total offense and total defense but has one glaring statistical weakness. You guessed it. Turnover margin.
And it’s not hard to see why. Through eight games, LSU has turned the ball over 11 times while forcing just nine takeaways, leaving the Tigers at minus-two for the season. That’s not a terrible number, but it’s certainly not what you’d expect from a team that’s been so dominant on both sides of the ball.
The good news is that things are trending in the right direction. Sam Leavitt has now gone two consecutive games without throwing an interception, and LSU played turnover-free football against Auburn. That’s especially encouraging considering Leavitt threw eight interceptions over the first six games.
Of course, we’d also like to see Blake Baker’s defense create more takeaways. This unit has been outstanding at getting after quarterbacks, limiting rushing attacks and forcing opponents into difficult situations. Heck, the Tigers recorded seven sacks against Auburn alone. But turning some of that pressure into interceptions and recovered fumbles could make an already outstanding defense even more dangerous.
Think about the games LSU has coming up. Alabama, Texas and Tennessee all have the talent to punish mistakes, and there’s a good chance at least one of those contests will come down to a handful of possessions. In those situations, one ill-advised throw, one fumble or one takeaway by the defense could make all the difference.
The Tigers have already shown they can beat good teams without winning the turnover battle. But with a College Football Playoff berth potentially hanging in the balance, why make things harder than they have to be? If LSU can keep protecting the football while finding ways to take it away more often, its chances of navigating November will be that much better.
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